I have written an analysis report about BTC price cycle, it is about the relation between Bitcoin price, US Election Cycle and BTC Halving cycle in last 12 years, as you can see in the keynotes below. The relation itself between BTC price and US Election, this has been well discussed by many people, but one fact has been ignored by many at the same time, that the relation may be just a coincidence that US Election and BTC Halving are both happening in an 4-yearish cycle.
- Bitcoin Price Patterns During US Election Week: What History Shows
- Bitcoin, Crypto, and the 2024 US Presidential Election
Keynotes:
Over the last 12 years, we have seen a clear pattern: before and after the Bitcoin halving, the
price obviously increased, especially within one calendar year after the halving. Because the
halving and the U.S. presidential election occur within the same cycle, these two events are
strongly correlated.
- In a year after halving, the average return of BTC is 292%, in a year before halving, the return is 97%.
- The next halving is 10 April 2028 11:33.
To have a clear view of this relation, this chart has been made.
The difference between pre-halving and post-halving is getting smaller and smaller in last 12 years, but the return of post-halving is still larger than pre-halving. Besides this, there is more obvious pattern in it: that in this 4-year cycle, in a range out of 1 year before and 1 year after halving, the price of BTC decreased in last 12 years, while in a range of 1 year before and 1 year after halving, the price increased. In another word, if the theory works that halving of BTC surges the BTC price, the next opportunity to invest in BTC is middle of 2026.
To see the full report in PDF.